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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.