Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
