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Plug-in hybrid cars emit nearly five times more planet-heating emissions than lab-reported figures show, as per a new analysis.

Growing Gap In Lab and Real-World Emissions

Statistics shows that PHEVs emit only one-fifth less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on analysis conducted by a non-profit organization. That contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Analysts examined data from in-vehicle energy use monitors of eight hundred thousand cars sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than official estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are rising, while official figures are falling,” stated a lead analyst involved in the report. “That discrepancy is growing and creates a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute almost as much as petrol vehicles.”

Primary Reasons Behind the Emissions Gap

Researchers linked most of the gap to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of miles driven in electric power compared to overall mileage. They found that just 27% of driving was done in electric mode, while official estimates assumed 84%.

Additionally, when running in EV mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than official projections. That occurred because EV motors were not strong enough to function independently, leading to combustion motors burning gasoline for nearly a third of the distance covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

According to calculations, the underestimation of PHEV emissions enabled several large automaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing adherence with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs would spend about €500 more annually in operating expenses than would be estimated under lab conditions.

“The bold claims that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are clearly far from the mark,” stated a automotive expert. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the planet and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly improved than regular gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Automotive Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid vehicles have recently been drawn again into policy discussions as carmakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned ban on sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the automotive sector and resistance from member states with significant car industries.

Some high-level politicians have suggested PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” solution to introduce in the legislation.

An external energy policy expert, who was not involved with the study, called the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after years in which segments of the automotive sector argued there was insufficient data to accurately evaluate actual emissions.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the gap between lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” the expert stated. “Any regulatory changes concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost caution and in the light of this evidence.”