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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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